Escalating Rhetorical Battle Involving Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Sparks Anxieties of Conflict

Mounting concerns have emerged about the chance of warfare involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive language has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a fierce war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in the previous year that his government's sea access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it without sea access.

Five years later, a military clash started in which numerous people lost their lives.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrea's southern port of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and implied the wish to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Claims

In the face of continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to concise remarks on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for sea access describing it as "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a policy of retaking lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on recently that moves to validate "obvious provocation" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Border

So far, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has shown graduation ceremonies of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The leader of human resources department of the defense force, General Hachalu, stated recently in an discussion that the military was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Previous Origins of the Dispute

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by Italian rulers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the UK forces before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

However in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this system and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A extended civil war ensued, concluding with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then approved by the population in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors stayed at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders signed a announcement that the hostilities was finished – a move that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in Ethiopia's recent civil war in Tigray.

However ties have subsequently deteriorated again.